Reality Blind - Vol. 1

Integrating the Systems Science Underpinning Our Collective Futures


INTRODUCTION
13

SECTION 1 - HOW TO THINK ABOUT REALITY
18

What If What We Know Just Ain’t So??
19

The Parts and the Whole of the Elephant
21

An Uncommon, But Important, Timeline
24

The Rules of Reality
26

Emergence
28

Contingent Probability
30

On the Issue of Boundaries
32

So, How Do We Engage with Reality?
34

SECTION 2 - DEEP TIME
36

We Are Stardust
37

Deep Time
39

Our Family Tree
41

Mass and Minor Extinctions
42

Our Earth Clock
45

SECTION 3 - HUMAN BEHAVIOR
48

The Human Problem, and the Human Brain
49

Evolution by (natural) Selection
51

The Pinnacle of Creation (Not)
53

Human Evolution
55

The Agenda of the Gene
57

Hello Mr. and Mrs. Adaptation Executor
61

If it feels good, do it, right?!
63

The Elephant and the Rider
65

Sexual Selection on a Full Planet...
67

Social Status: Keeping up with the Joneses
69

You (almost) Win!! It’s the Unexpected Reward, Stupid!
71

Supernormal Stimuli
74

Addiction/Habituation
76

The Hedonic Ratchet
77

Evolved to be Wrong:
80

Bias and Delusion as Adaptive Traits
80

Modular Minds – a Mixed Blessing
83

The “Interpreter” Module - Introduction
85

Retroactive Confabulation
87

Belief in Belief
89

Cognitive Biases: a Potpourri of Biases
92

Loss Aversion
94

Cognitive Dissonance
96

Optimism Bias
98

Confirmation Bias
100

Consensus Trance
103

Authority Bias
105

Cognitive Load
107

Time Blindness
108

Shifting Baselines
111

Moral Biases
113

Bias X + Bias Y + Global context = Emergent Biases
115

Ultrasociality
118

Ingroup vs. Outgroup
120

Our Dual Natures: Cooperation vs. Competition
123

Multi-Level Selection
126

Equality and Fairness
128

On Empathy
130

The Games People Play – the Tragedy of the Commons and the Prisoner’s Dilemma
133

Cultural Evolution
136

Enter: The Amoeba
138

The Moat Surrounding the Castle of Sustainable Futures
141

SECTION 4 - ENERGY AND ECONOMY
145

Energy Part 1 – Ecology and Energy
146

Ecology and Our Life Support Systems
146

Rabbits and Bears and Humans, Oh My…
148

Carrying Capacity (and Overshoot)
150

The Law of the Minimum
153

Bottlenecks: (Population, Genetic, and Generic)
155

The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics
159

Energy in Ecosystems: Trophic Pyramids
161

Income – Expenses = Life
164

Energy Part 2 – Energy and Humans
166

Swimming (obliviously) in a sea of energy
166

So, What IS Energy Anyway?
170

Homo Sapiens and the Family Joules
173

Humans and Fire – A Revolutionary Symbiosis
175

Brother, Can You Spare Some Surplus?
177

Endo vs Exo
179

Energy Part 3 –The 5 Pools of Carbon
181

The Bountiful Presents from the Past
181

Soil
183

Trees
186

From Sea Creatures to Gasoline (Oil)
188

Coal
190

Natural Gas
193

Energy - Part 4 – Our Fossil Armies
197

Our Fossil Slaves…
197

When Ancient Sunlight Meets Modern Machines
200

The Strength of Superheroes
202

The “Trade” - Replacing Human Labor with Fossil Energy
204

The Coupling: Energy and GDP
207

The Metabolism of Humanity
210

Gross World Burning
212

Energy and Stuff!
214

Energy Part 5 – Energy and Money
216

What is Money?
216

What are “Jobs,” Exactly?
218

How is Money Created?
220

What is Debt?
223

“A Fuel” and “its Money!” are Soon Parted…
225

Helicopters and the Future
228

Energy Part 6 - Energy and Technology
231

The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Mechanization
231

Technology OR Energy vs. Technology AND Energy?
234

Efficiency and Affordability? The Rebound Effect
236

Energy, Technology and Complexity
239

The Energy Cost of Getting Energy
241

Energetic Remoteness – “To be Ore, or Not to be”
244

Water
247

Energy Part 7 - Energy, Growth and Population
250

A Malthusian Perspective
250

Modern Human Population
253

The “Pie” and the “Slice” – GDP/per capita
257

The Slice of Pie per Human – and the Whole Pie
259

The Modern “Exosomatic” Pyramid
262

Energy Privilege
264

Inequality
266

Poverty: Wide Boundary Style
269

Energy Part 8 - The Carbon Pulse
272

The Carbon Pulse
272

Oil: You Gotta Find It Before You Can Burn It
275

Depletion
277

The Red Queen Phenomenon
280

The Fracking Truth
283

A Crude Substitute
285

Price vs Cost (vs Value)
288

What if Oil cost $400 per Barrel?
290

Draining America First
293

Energy Part 9 - Energy Properties and Renewables
297

Renewables A.K.A. Rebuildables
297

A Joule is a Joule. Or is it?
299

Potential vs. Kinetic Energy
301

Energy Properties
303

Energy Tech: What Can’t Work, What Won’t Work, and What Might
307

The Energy Underpinning our Modern World
310

Transportation and Trucking
313

Supply Chains, Chains, Chains, Chains, Chains
316

“Renewable” Energy: Solar Photovoltaics and Stochasticity
319

“Renewable” Energy: Nuclear Fission Power
324

Renewables: Fusion?
328

Renewable Energy Point #1: The Invisible Triangle
331

Renewables Point #2: FFEMs (Fossil Fuel Extension Mechanisms)
333

Renewables Point #3: A Story That Never Gets Fully Told - Not This Civilization
335
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