i Table of contents 347

Reality Blind - Vol. 1

Integrating the Systems Science Underpinning Our Collective Futures

INTRODUCTION		13
SECTION 1 - HOW TO THINK ABOUT REALITY		18
What If What We Know Just Ain’t So??		19
The Parts and the Whole of the Elephant		21
An Uncommon, But Important, Timeline		24
The Rules of Reality		26
Emergence		28
Contingent Probability		30
On the Issue of Boundaries		32
So, How Do We Engage with Reality?		34
SECTION 2 - DEEP TIME		36
We Are Stardust		37
Deep Time		39
Our Family Tree		41
Mass and Minor Extinctions		42
Our Earth Clock		45
SECTION 3 - HUMAN BEHAVIOR		48
The Human Problem, and the Human Brain		49
Evolution by (natural) Selection		51
The Pinnacle of Creation (Not)		53
Human Evolution		55
The Agenda of the Gene		57
Hello Mr. and Mrs. Adaptation Executor		61
If it feels good, do it, right?!		63
The Elephant and the Rider		65
Sexual Selection on a Full Planet...		67
Social Status: Keeping up with the Joneses		69
You (almost) Win!! It’s the Unexpected Reward, Stupid!		71
Supernormal Stimuli		74
Addiction/Habituation		76
The Hedonic Ratchet		77
Evolved to be Wrong:		80
Bias and Delusion as Adaptive Traits		80
Modular Minds – a Mixed Blessing		83
The “Interpreter” Module - Introduction		85
Retroactive Confabulation		87
Belief in Belief		89
Cognitive Biases: a Potpourri of Biases		92
Loss Aversion		94
Cognitive Dissonance		96
Optimism Bias		98
Confirmation Bias		100
Consensus Trance		103
Authority Bias		105
Cognitive Load		107
Time Blindness		108
Shifting Baselines		111
Moral Biases		113
Bias X + Bias Y + Global context = Emergent Biases		115
Ultrasociality		118
Ingroup vs. Outgroup		120
Our Dual Natures: Cooperation vs. Competition		123
Multi-Level Selection		126
Equality and Fairness		128
On Empathy		130
The Games People Play – the Tragedy of the Commons and the Prisoner’s Dilemma		133
Cultural Evolution		136
Enter: The Amoeba		138
The Moat Surrounding the Castle of Sustainable Futures		141
SECTION 4 - ENERGY AND ECONOMY		145
Energy Part 1 – Ecology and Energy		146
Ecology and Our Life Support Systems		146
Rabbits and Bears and Humans, Oh My…		148
Carrying Capacity (and Overshoot)		150
The Law of the Minimum		153
Bottlenecks: (Population, Genetic, and Generic)		155
The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics		159
Energy in Ecosystems: Trophic Pyramids		161
Income – Expenses = Life		164
Energy Part 2 – Energy and Humans		166
Swimming (obliviously) in a sea of energy		166
So, What IS Energy Anyway?		170
Homo Sapiens and the Family Joules		173
Humans and Fire – A Revolutionary Symbiosis		175
Brother, Can You Spare Some Surplus?		177
Endo vs Exo		179
Energy Part 3 –The 5 Pools of Carbon		181
The Bountiful Presents from the Past		181
Soil		183
Trees		186
From Sea Creatures to Gasoline (Oil)		188
Coal		190
Natural Gas		193
Energy - Part 4 – Our Fossil Armies		197
Our Fossil Slaves…		197
When Ancient Sunlight Meets Modern Machines		200
The Strength of Superheroes		202
The “Trade” - Replacing Human Labor with Fossil Energy		204
The Coupling: Energy and GDP		207
The Metabolism of Humanity		210
Gross World Burning		212
Energy and Stuff!		214
Energy Part 5 – Energy and Money		216
What is Money?		216
What are “Jobs,” Exactly?		218
How is Money Created?		220
What is Debt?		223
“A Fuel” and “its Money!” are Soon Parted…		225
Helicopters and the Future		228
Energy Part 6 - Energy and Technology		231
The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Mechanization		231
Technology OR Energy vs. Technology AND Energy?		234
Efficiency and Affordability? The Rebound Effect		236
Energy, Technology and Complexity		239
The Energy Cost of Getting Energy		241
Energetic Remoteness – “To be Ore, or Not to be”		244
Water		247
Energy Part 7 - Energy, Growth and Population		250
A Malthusian Perspective		250
Modern Human Population		253
The “Pie” and the “Slice” – GDP/per capita		257
The Slice of Pie per Human – and the Whole Pie		259
The Modern “Exosomatic” Pyramid		262
Energy Privilege		264
Inequality		266
Poverty: Wide Boundary Style		269
Energy Part 8 - The Carbon Pulse		272
The Carbon Pulse		272
Oil: You Gotta Find It Before You Can Burn It		275
Depletion		277
The Red Queen Phenomenon		280
The Fracking Truth		283
A Crude Substitute		285
Price vs Cost (vs Value)		288
What if Oil cost $400 per Barrel?		290
Draining America First		293
Energy Part 9 - Energy Properties and Renewables		297
Renewables A.K.A. Rebuildables		297
A Joule is a Joule. Or is it?		299
Potential vs. Kinetic Energy		301
Energy Properties		303
Energy Tech: What Can’t Work, What Won’t Work, and What Might		307
The Energy Underpinning our Modern World		310
Transportation and Trucking		313
Supply Chains, Chains, Chains, Chains, Chains		316
“Renewable” Energy: Solar Photovoltaics and Stochasticity		319
“Renewable” Energy: Nuclear Fission Power		324
Renewables: Fusion?		328
Renewable Energy Point #1: The Invisible Triangle		331
Renewables Point #2: FFEMs (Fossil Fuel Extension Mechanisms)		333
Renewables Point #3: A Story That Never Gets Fully Told - Not This Civilization		335

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