It is not that unlikely a time to be alive: there have probably been roughly 100 billion human lives lived in the last 300,000 years, and we appear to be imminently heading for “10 billion at once”. So the chance of finding yourself alive during the “carbon pulse” peak is roughly 1 in 10. And here we all are.
But now that we ARE here, it may be reasonable to think about what these trends imply, how sustainable they may be, and whether – as economists might predict – we will just keep expanding in number indefinitely as our “demand” brings resources into existence, or, inst ead, we will be subject to limits.
Let’s review a few points about human population:
~ Paul Ehrlich, a modern ‘Malthusian,’ wrote the best - selling book “The Population Bomb” in 1968, predicting widespread starvation and upheaval in the 1970s and 1980s due to declining resources per capita. But like Malthus before him, he missed the full implications of fossil energy in expanding terrestrial plant and vertebrate biomass, as well as the efficiency effects of globalization and stimulant effects of debt creation. (Ehrlich promoted the formula I=PAT to describe the impact of humans on the planet - Impact being the product of Population, Affluence, and Technology). ~ The UN forecasts the 2100 population to be 10.9 billion and is 95% confident in a range of 9.4 to 12.7 billion 146 . NONE of the inputs to the UN population forecast model mention energy or biophysical measures such as EROEI, oil depletion, or energy’s role in the productivity function in economics (Cobb Douglas). The UN forecasts Africa, which already requires significant food imports, to grow from one to two billion by 2050
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